The ownership percentages are extremely valuable. So if a player was able to look at these in advance and no one else [could], they would have a distinct advantage. If you project Player A to get 20 points and 8 percent ownership and Player B to have 20 points and 17 percent ownership, Player A will win you a tournament, not Player B. It’s a big advantage to take the guesswork out of it. Say there are 1,000 players in a winner-take-all tourney and four defenses to choose from in a two-game slate. Suppose, realistically, that the winner of the tourney will have to have the highest-scoring defense as part of his team.
“Suppose you think the Seahawks are very easily the best defense on the slate, and you estimate they will be 70 percent owned. When deciding whether to take them, You ballpark it like this: Am I willing to lay 7-3 odds that the Seahawks will outscore all other D’s? Here I would probably decide that I’m not willing to lay that price, so I’ll fade them even though they’re the best value.
“To take advantage of the overly high ownership percentage of the Seahawks, I could enter lineups with the other three defenses (in proportion 1/3, 1/3, 1/3) and essentially take odds of 7-3 from the prize pool on the best that one of these three defenses will outscore Seattle.”
Yes, I want to score as many points and possible, but if I continually put together a team of heavily owned players who score well, by definition the probability of hundreds of other people having those players on their team is high, and my advantage over the masses is low.
Consider this basic example.
If wide receiver A is projected to score 15 points and wide receiver B is projected to score only 10, on face value the former is certainly more attractive, especially if they have similar salaries.
But when we add in ownership rates to the mix, say 30% for player A and only 8% for player B, things become much more interesting.
A big game of 25 points from player A would give me an advantage over 70% of the field who did not pick him, and I would be on an even playing field with the 30% of owners when it comes to my remaining players.
A similar big game of 20 points from player B would not give me the same amount of total points as player A, but I would still have excellent production from my player and I would have a advantage over 92% of the remaining field and will compete on an even level with only 8%, respectively.
I used similar salaries for each player in the scenario, but the lack of usage and ownership of my player improved my probability of winning over a larger part of the player pool. With a solid roster of other top producing players for their respective positions, I should fare well compared to those who did not choose player B.
Don’t forget to check out our Optimizer For Fanduel NFL and DraftKings NFL.
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As an athlete in his younger years, Shane Kilgore developed a deep understanding of what it takes for a player to produce at the top of their game. Using that knowledge and an obsessive research habit has led to player picks and insights that many other writers would miss. As a daily fantasy sports player, Shane uses those picks and insights to win! Follow Shane on Twitter @Lineupzone