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February 12, 2016
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February 15, 2016

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New Mexico State

Elite Plays

None – I love Pascal Siakam, but there is no way I use him at that price today. His rebounding and shooting tempo free stats are so good, and he’s been great this year but it’s going to be a struggle tonight against Wichita who never lets anyone score on them in the post, in fact, they have allowed the 2nd least percentage of points allowed in the paint this year while providing a top 15% interior defense. There’s no way to rationalize using Siakam’s ridiculously high salary as NMST is only projected to score 56 in a low tempo game.

Secondary Plays

Jalyn Pennie ($5,500 FD, $4,200 DK) – I really don’t want to use any Aggies here at all, but Pennie is cheap enough to stay on my radar. He’s inconsistent, but with all of the height on NMST, he might have a mismatch on the wing. He isn’t the greatest three point shooter but can get it done from out there and he does rebound well. Basically the price is the only think keeping me interested as I think it isn’t a great matchup.

Virginia

Elite Plays

Anthony Gill ($6,400 FD, $6,600 DK) – I’m preparing myself to be disappointed again by Gill, but he’s in the best matchup of the day on FanDuel and is still going to be fairly chalk on DraftKings in my opinion. He’s been a major disappointment, mostly because Virginia isn’t playing enough possessions to really get him to 30 fantasy points per game and he’s struggled lately. The good thing is that NC State doesn’t defensive rebound well and Gill is a great offensive rebounder. He should be solid for 20 today and on this slate, that could be considered elite.

Secondary Plays

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300 FD, $7,700 DK) – Brogdon is a solid GPP gamble as he’s basically locked into all of the minutes he can handle. He hasn’t been great lately, but he is still an elite player with a 30% shot rate and nearing 20% in rebounds and assists. He doesn’t get the statistical love because every Virginia game is around 60 possessions, but tempo free stats are great. Brogdon, Perrantes and Gill take up most of the minutes with the bench rotating in the other two spots and they aren’t really in play at all.

Wichita State

Elite Plays

Fred Van Vleet ($7,800 FD, $7,800 DK) – Even though he’s really been struggling lately, I still like FVV over Baker. He has the better tempo free numbers and will be playing most of the game here. His price is down since his struggles and he continues to have one of the best assist and scoring rates in the country. The interesting thing about him is that he assists on a lot of Baker’s buckets, so when Fred is making shots you’re getting upside on both guys just by using Fred.

Ron Baker ($7,400 FD, $7,900 DK) – I have no issue with using both guys on FanDuel, but I might stray from Baker on DK considering the other options from the Green Bay game in the price range. Baker isn’t taking as many shots (only 21% in conference play) and is struggling from the field, but his rebound and assist rates are almost at 20% and his block and steal rates are solid as well. I don’t necessarily love him today, but he will be good for at least 20 on a difficult slate to find value.

Secondary Plays

None – Outside of the big two for Wichita, there really isn’t another one who is going to provide value. Grady/McDuffie/Wessel/Morris all split time in the post and guys like Frankamp and Zach Brown help out on the perimeter but don’t get consistent enough minutes to make a difference.

Oklahoma State

Elite Plays

Tyree Griffin ($4,800 FD, $4,600 DK) – As long as Evans remains out, and Griffin is going to play 40 minutes at this 4,500 price point while replacing him, I don’t care that his tempo free stats aren’t good. He’s hit 20 fantasy points in each of the last two and what appears to be a really low scoring night, we’re going to need value plays who can provide a quick 15-20 points to not tank the lineup. Griffin does that. He isn’t a great offensive player, in fact he isn’t very good at offense, but he’s the only PG on the roster without Evans and his minutes are locked in.

Secondary Plays

Jeff Newberry ($6,800 FD, $6,400 DK) – Newberry continues to see his role rise and he’s played on the ball some since the Evans injury. He’s rebounding better and had a great 10-5-10 game against Kansas State. His steals rate is going up and I really like him here as he is going to have to have a huge game if Oklahoma State is going to stay in this one. Hammonds is also an interesting play and Carroll could be used sparingly as these guys have all seen usage bumps since Evans has been out. Just remember, they are playing away at Kansas who is looking for revenge on this Oklahoma State team who beat them in Stillwater.

Kansas

Elite Plays

Landen Lucas ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK) – I hate to do this, but short slates make us do some weird things to fit studs and provide a lineup that has a chance to perform and everything I’ve been seeing makes Lucas project as a very solid play here. Kansas has one of the highest over/unders of the day, and although Oklahoma State has a solid defense all around, they really struggle to rebound the basketball where Lucas is the best. I am counting on Lucas getting a ton of minutes with his 25% rebounding rate and ridiculous offensive rating because all he does is dunk. Diallo started the previous game against Oklahoma State which turned into a disaster defensively, so Lucas should get 25+ minutes again today assuming no foul issues.

Perry Ellis ($8,100 FD, $8,100 DK) – Ellis is solid here as I like his ability to rebound against this Oklahoma State team and to crash the glass. He’s shooting 48% from three this year and has a 29% shot rate to go along with the rest of his tempo free stats. With this over/under here, he’s the go-to guy on possibly the highest scoring team on the slate, which is something you have to consider.

Secondary Plays

Devonte Graham ($6,700 FD, $6,600 DK) – Graham saved the day against Oklahoma and now he gets to try to get revenge against Oklahoma State. Mason continues to be expensive and hasn’t hit value in a while. Selden continues to be Selden, and unless he’s on fire from the outside, he’s getting you 10 fantasy points. Graham is the other option as he’s the cheapest guard, is locked into huge minutes and has the ability to outscore both of the other two combined in the right situation. Graham’s tempo free numbers are just a bit worse but he continues to play better recently than the other two.

NC State

Elite Plays

None – Fresh off a game that NC State put 99 up on Wake Forest at home, they have to travel to Virginia to play one of the slowest teams in the nation. While NC State guys were found everywhere on Saturday and for good reason, this is as bad of a matchup as it was good two days ago. I wouldn’t use Barber here as he’s too expensive and there’s projected to be 17!!! less possessions than the Wake Forest game. While the Martin’s have been good, I don’t think we can trust anyone to hit value here even on a short slate

Secondary Plays

Maverick Rowan ($5,500 FD, $5,000 DK) – If you really want someone from NC State, I would look at a Martin or Rowan. The Martin’s are harder to deal with, as we aren’t sure which guy is going to end up getting the minutes. Caleb got Cody’s minutes in the last game because of foul trouble with Cody, but they were able to play together for a period of time. Evne though there’s a low tempo here, NC State is going to need someone to make tough shots at the end of the shot clock and Rowan is able to do that with the Martins. His price is a bit lower and we don’t have to worry about his minutes, but he’s a GPP only play.

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As an athlete in his younger years, Shane Kilgore developed a deep understanding of what it takes for a player to produce at the top of their game. Using that knowledge and an obsessive research habit has led to player picks and insights that many other writers would miss. As a daily fantasy sports player, Shane uses those picks and insights to win! Follow Shane on Twitter @Lineupzone

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