When it comes to picking contests, you want to be very smart about it. While it’s foolish to chase money by entering a ton of big tournaments, the big tournaments are going to continue to push your bankroll higher and higher. You’ll grind out profits in head-to-head (H2H) and 50/50 contests, and this will essentially help you to enter the big tournaments for free.
So how good do you have to be to break even? If you win H2H’s and 50/50’s at a 55.5% rate (assuming the house takes 10% of the pot), you’re going to about break even in those. You have to be better than that. The number required to break even can be somewhat lower by taking advantage of deposit bonuses offered at many of the sites. Always, ALWAYS take advantage of those. You’ll realistically want to win the H2H’s and 50/50’s at a 60% rate. That will give you an 8% ROI (Return on Investment).
Triple ups are also contests that I love to enter! On nights that your lineup is better than average, they’ll help accelerate your profits. The break even point for those is a 37% win rate. A 40% win rate will net you an 8% ROI there.
So let’s break this down. If you can manage a 60% H2H and 50/50 win rate and a 40% Triple up win rate, then a contest breakdown of 75% H2H and 50/50, 18% Triple Up (or other similar contests like 5-Teamers), and 7% big tournaments will net you a small amount of profit if you never cashed a single tournament.
For ease, let’s say I play $100 a day and I break it down to 75 $1 H2H or 50/50s that pay out $0.80, 18 $1 triple ups that pay out $1.70, and two big tournaments at $5 and $2. If I win 60% of the H2Hs and 50/50s, then I’d finish with 45 wins and 30 losses for a profit of: 45*$0.80-30*$1.00 = $6.00. For the triple ups, a 40% win rate would be 7.2 wins and 10.8 losses. Bare with me as this is just an exercise…it’d be real tough to win 7.2 games. That translates to a profit of 7.2*$1.70-10.8*$1.00 = $1.44. So you’ve profited $7.44 off those games, and then played $7 on big tournaments.
You can adjust these percentages based on how much you win. The end goal for me is to simply make enough money so that my Tournament entries are completely paid for and my final profits typically end up being what I take away in Tournaments. If you could manage a long-term H2H win percentage of 65% and 45% for Triple Ups, then you could do a 65%/20%/15% H2H/Triple Up/Tournament split. If you can’t manage a 60% H2H win percentage, then you’re going to be slowly donating your money back but still stand to profit if you can put together some good Tournament Teams.
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As an athlete in his younger years, Shane Kilgore developed a deep understanding of what it takes for a player to produce at the top of their game. Using that knowledge and an obsessive research habit has led to player picks and insights that many other writers would miss. As a daily fantasy sports player, Shane uses those picks and insights to win! Follow Shane on Twitter @Lineupzone